Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: 89 Seconds to Midnight

It is now 89 seconds to midnight

You can also watch the announcement on YouTube.

In setting the Clock one second closer to midnight, the Science and Security Board sends a stark signal: Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster.

The Bulletin has reset the minute hand on the Doomsday Clock 26 times since its debut in 1947, most recently in 2025 when we moved it from 90 seconds to midnight to 89 seconds to midnight. Every time it is reset, we’re flooded with questions about the internationally recognized symbol. Here are answers to some of the most frequent queries.

The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet.

When the Doomsday Clock was created in 1947, the greatest danger to humanity came from nuclear weapons, in particular from the prospect that the United States and the Soviet Union were headed for a nuclear arms race. The Bulletin considered possible catastrophic disruptions from climate change in its hand-setting deliberations for the first time in 2007.

Kansas Senator and Convisero mentor Patrick Schmidt condemns Trump's pardon of violent Jan. 6 offenders

I have helped Patrick in a personal capacity to run for office and support his positions. Sen. Schmidt, D-Topeka, is one of five senators sponsoring a resolution condemning President Donald Trump's pardoning of Jan. 6 rioters convicted of violent crimes.

See here for the full article.

The resolution is unlikely to pass in a legislative body where Republicans have supermajority control. Trump won 57% of the vote in Kansas in 2024, and Republican leaders in the state are largely supportive of Trump's agenda.

"I don't think that this really should be a partisan issue," Schmidt said. "You had people that stole officers' service weapons, you had people that tasered law enforcement officers, you had, I think, almost 200 people with guns."

VII Foundation Executive Director and Convisero mentor Gary Knight on leading investigation of "Napalm Girl"

Gary Knight, Convisero mentor and whose organization VII Foundation I serve as an advisor to, was recently featured in this article on the investigation of “Napalm Girl” photo being credited to the wrong journalist.

Executive director Gary Knight, a photojournalist who led the film's investigation, told AFP it was "critical" that members of the news media "hold ourselves to account."

"The photograph in question is one of the most important photographs of anything ever made, certainly of war," he said.

Over the past two years, Gary has been working with a team of journalists at The VII Foundation and in Vietnam on an investigation into the veracity of the authorship of one of the most iconic images of the 20th century, or indeed, of any century. That investigation was documented by the Vietnamese American film director Bao Nguyen.

What VII Foundation uncovered speaks to the heart of what is most important in photography. The film grapples with questions of authorship, racial injustice, and journalistic ethics while shining a light on the fundamental yet often unrecognized contributions of local freelancers who provide the information needed to understand how events worldwide impact us all.

Gary says the following in a VII Foundation article on the matter:

This is a story that many people in our profession did not want told, and some of them continue to go to great lengths to make sure it isn't told. But regardless of the passage of time and however inconvenient it might be, nothing should stall the pursuit of truth in journalism because we are obliged to hold ourselves to account if we seek to hold everyone else to account. There is an old adage that journalism is 'the first draft of history'; sometimes it takes a second draft to set the record straight.

As one of the legendary Vietnamese journalists we spoke to told us: ‘There's nothing more important than the truth. When the truth is disregarded, that's when society becomes corrupted. (The truth) cannot be twisted, or torn apart, because if so, it's no longer the truth and we will have lost our moral compass.’

The Stringer premiered January 2025 at the Sundance Film Festival. Please watch this space for further information on theinvestigation and the film itself.

ISYP becomes a 2025 PACEY Award Finalist

In a rare bright spot in today’s news, there is a sincere congratulations to ISYP’s South Asia dialogue project as a finalist for the 2025 PACEY Awards.

ISYP, whose external advisory board I am on, is re-launching their South Asia initiative, which built a great community throughout 2022-2023 with successful roundtables on nuclear weapons issues in South Asia, including on the intersection of nuclear policy and cybersecurity. They hope to continue this work in 2025 and expand into producing published works and additional conferences.

Sanaa Alvira joins ISYP as a Research Associate specializing in nuclear policy and related issues at the Centre for Air Power Studies, India, and a Research Assistant at the Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI). She is also a Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellow at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and a recent graduate of the Non-Proliferation and Terrorism Studies master’s programme at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. She joined ISYP's Leadership Team in 2024 and will be working on the South Asia Programming, in addition to ISYP's other projects.

In mutual congratulations, the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the Japanese organization, Nihon Hidankyo, an organization dedicated to supporting and amplifying the stories of nuclear bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki and educating the public on the dangers and humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons. ISYP warmly congratulates Nihon Hidankyo on being awarded the 2024 Nobel Peace Prize. ISYP honors the legacy of the Hibakusha - the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - whose courage and advocacy inspire our commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons.

Latest update on Power Ukraine from HRF

One month ago, HRF launched the Power Ukraine campaign to raise money for portable generators and deliver them to Ukrainians affected by the war and prolonged power outages.

The situation in Ukraine remains urgent: as the winter sets in, and temperatures hit as low as -30 Celsius (-22 Fahrenheit), Russian forces continue to purposefully attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, including boiler stations and power plants, in order to deprive Ukrainians of heat, electricity, and connectivity in the dead of winter. Portable generators allow the people of Ukraine to stay warm, charge their electronic devices, and stay connected with their loved ones.

Convisero mentor Rabbi Adina Allen in Boston

Creativity offers us a portal to transformation, spiritual connection, and revelation. It is there for us when we feel stuck, divided, or disconnected. In her highly anticipated first book, Rabbi Adina Allen delivers a paradigm-shifting and powerfully accessible reading of Torah as a contemporary guidebook for creativity and invites us to rethink and transform ourselves, our lives, and the world around us.

Join us for an afternoon with Rabbi Adina Allen, JSP Co-Founder and author of The Place of All Possibility: Cultivating Creativity Through Ancient Jewish Wisdom, in conversation with Joshua Foer, journalist, bestselling author, and co-founder of innovative Jewish enterprises including Lehrhaus and Sefaria.

Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, reflections, calls to action

In a major turn of events, Israel and Hamas has reached a ceasefire agreement. In an early news segment, Al Jazeera interviews Mouin Rabbani, non-resident Fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies. A graduate of Tufts University and Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Rabbani has published, presented and commented widely on Middle East issues, including for most major print, television and digital media. 

January 16, 2025: Gazan poet Mosab Abu Toha wrote a piece back in September 2024 that Etan Nechin says amid the ceasefire “demands more than reflection, it demands a reckoning with Gaza's destruction.” More on this here.

January 17, 2025: A recent article by Ussama Makdisiprovides revisits “Victims of the Victims,” Edward Said’s ethical humanism in the context of the Gaza genocide.

Much more will be added as this progresses.

Convisero mentor Jehane Sedky leads FXB Center at Harvard University

Jehane Sedky recently joined Harvard University’s FXB Center for Health and Human Rights as its new Executive Director. Jehane is a seasoned senior executive with an excellent record in leadership roles, providing strategic guidance and support to influential leaders such as former US President Bill Clinton, former UNICEF Executive Director Carol Bellamy and the late Harvard University Professor Dr. Paul Farmer. Her expertise spans a wide spectrum of responsibilities, including leading major initiatives, strategic program development for social impact, fundraising, media, and communications. Renowned for exceptional leadership and people management skills, Ms. Sedky excels in unifying teams toward common goals.

The work of health and human rights is imperative, especially as we see here the Lancet Study that discovered official Gaza death toll is estimated to be a 41% undercount.

Aligning Environmental Concerns across Convisero mentors including

Across the Convisero mentors network are individuals and collaborations that are working on the critical concern of the environment.

Recently, Duncard Pickard, was featured in the Vineyard Gazette about his latest project at work, “proving that greenhouse gases are a pollutant and that the countries with the highest carbon emissions have a legal obligation to curb their effects.” He’s also featured in Tufts NOW on this case and feels a special connection to small islands seeing parallels between his hometown of Martha’s Vineyard and their vulnerability to climate change. 

Similarly, the People’s Tribunal for Environmental Justice formed out of a summer Fletcher project Julia Shufro completed for her graduate program. This group included Boaz Wachtel, Rachel Svetanoff, and Peter Droege. Peter, together with India's remarkable Admiral Dhowan, is creating in partnership with The Trebuchet the Global Maritime Accord Academy, whose third session took place recently.

Leo Stern works for the France committee of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), chaired by Pascal Lamy, former director of the World Trade Organization. The PECC aims to bring together diplomats, entrepreneurs and researchers to foster economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. He assists the Secretary General in defining the overall committee’s strategy. I also organize conferences - e.g., on the blue economy, sustainable tourism, IT supply chain restructuring, deep-sea mining - and provide financial and geopolitical analysis that feed into high stake negotiations.

Gregg Nakano has recently created an extraordinary project in the region concern, the KASL Climate Research Station - Ebadon. Gregg was the ramrod of the Institute's ALLIES civil - military program, whose seeds under Gregg's initiative grew into Pacific ALLIES. Now as part of Pacific ALLIES there is the KASL Kwajalein Atoll Sustainability Laboratory.

Another great alum, Daniel Mandell, who until recently served in the important post of chief Legal counsel to the President of Vanuatu. After he completes his time in Palau, Daniel will be a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow in Tokyo, Japan, where he will research ways for the U.S./Japan/Australia trilateral relationship to work together on development projects in the Pacific region.

ISYP co-hosts virtual event with VCDNP and IAI: Non-Proliferation for Young Professionals

I serve as an external advisor to ISYP whose efforts are closely related to my own in nuclear nonproliferation and youth involvement. Convisero mentors Talia Weiss, Maria Udolova, and soon to be Talia Wilcox are exemplary leaders in this space. Below is a demonstrative example of ISYP in action.

Left to right: Sanaa Alvira, Leadership Team Member at International Student/Young Pugwash, and Federica Dall’Arche, Senior Research Associate at the VCDNP

On 25 October 2024, the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP), the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), and International Student/Young Pugwash (ISYP) held the second edition of the “Engagement Opportunities in Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation for Young Professionals and Students” event. The virtual meeting provided key insights and hands-on advice on youth engagement and careers in the arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation space, and was attended by over 100 students and young professionals.

Christina Goldbaum's latest: Syria, Lebanon, and more

Recent articles, videos and podcasts from on the ground in some of the most fragile places in the world by wonderful alum and Convisero mentor Christina Goldbaum.

Convisero mentors meet at J-Street event on Palestinian and Israeli attitudes post-October 7th

Sherman left, Kahil Shikaki (Founding Senior Fellow of Brandeis Crown Center for Middle East Studies) middle, and Convisero mentor Padraig O'Malley right

J-Street recently hosted an event on Palestinian and Israeli attitudes post-October 7th. Their values hold the belief that only a negotiated resolution agreed to by Israelis and Palestinians can meet the legitimate needs and national aspirations of both peoples.

Padraig left, Sherman middle, and Dahlia Scheindlin (fellow at Century International, based in Tel Aviv)

Working in the American political system, in the Jewish community and with others with whom J-Street shares core values, they advocate for diplomacy-first American leadership and policies that advance justice, equality, peace, and democracy in Israel, in the wider region and in the United States as well.

Convisero mentor Ted Kurland convening: Politics War Room with James Carville and Al Hunt

This live show was held on November 3, 2024. A note of acknowledgement to Convisero mentor Ted Kurland who convened this event.

Al Hunt, Dorris Kerns Goodwin, and James Carville

Political strategist James Carville and revered journalist Al Hunt convenes a war room each week to discuss the “battle for the soul of the nation!”

This episode centered on the U.S. presidential election, the significance of polling data, and the implications for democracy. The speakers reflected on the qualities of effective leadership, drawing parallels between historical figures like Lincoln and Roosevelt, and emphasized the importance of character in leadership, among other seminal topics.

Their podcast featured here includes my question which can be found on minute 1:20:31.

International Court of Justice Proceedings in The Hague by Columbia Prof. James Hansen

The International Court of Justice is hearing from scores of nations before it issues an advisory opinion on the "Obligations of States in Respect of Climate Change." The key issue is whether international law requires nations to phase out production, distribution and use of fossil fuels and otherwise pay damages to the most vulnerable and hardest-hit of nations.

The other panelists are:

• Eelco Rohling, Professor of Ocean and Climate Change at the Earth Sciences Department at Utrecht University.

• Appy Sluijs, Professor of Paleo-oceanography at the Earth Sciences Department at Utrecht University. 

• Ingrid Robeyns, Professor of Ethics of Institutions at the Ethics Institute of Utrecht University. 

• Dan Galpern, General Counsel of Climate Protection and Restoration Initiative, and my long-time legal and policy adviser. [Dan's backgrounder on the proceedings is here.]

More can be read here.

Convisero mentor Sherif Mansour: "Investigating Gaza" at Source!

Convisero mentor Sherif Mansour hosts a panel at Source! Center for Investigative Journalism Symposium. Seen here is the link to his event.

Investigating Gaza: Given the difficulties of getting reporters into Gaza, journalists have been using remote methods – like AI and open-source technology – to find out what is going on there. Two reporters talk about the difficulties and opportunities of these methods, and the battle to uncover the truth.

Featuring: Krishna Karra and Abu Bakr Bashir

Chair: Sherif Mansour

Remembering President Jimmy Carter: National Security Archive

From Convisero mentor Tom Blanton’s National Security Archive. More can be found at the National Security Archive here.

The late President Jimmy Carter, contrary to the views of some critics, was typically focused, knowledgeable, and strong-willed on matters of foreign policy, often responding sharply to attempts by his most senior aides to bend his thinking, according to a review of the voluminous documentary record on Carter’s presidency.

A case in point is Carter’s relationship with his national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski. Every week, Brzezinski sent the president a memo intended to combine both factual reporting and personal observations on global affairs. Carter often wrote brief marginal notes on those memos in reply, which in retrospect open a window into his own thinking about the world and approaches to foreign policy.

A revealing example is Brzezinski’s April 21, 1978, “NSC Weekly Report,” an 8-page memo that immediately launches into a page-and-a-half appeal to modify and toughen administration foreign policy by doing more than just “negotiating agreements and devising formulas.” What was missing in the U.S. approach, Brzezinski wrote, was a hardnosed effort to “influence attitudes and to shape political events.” Sounding for all the world like his famously realpolitik predecessor, Henry Kissinger, Brzezinski called for a slew of other tactics, including an occasional “demonstration of force ... to infuse fear;” “saying publicly one thing and quietly negotiating something else;” “letting problems fester until they are ripe for action;” and using “black propaganda to stimulate difficulties for our proponents.” “The world,” he ended, “is just too complicated and turbulent to be handled effectively by negotiating ‘contracts’ while neglecting the need also to manipulate, to influence and to compel.”

Carter’s handwritten replies to most of these ideas are no more than a few words but they are graphic in conveying the president’s disapproval and even sarcasm regarding Brzezinski’s ideas. Next to the mention of force, he writes “Like Malaguez?” – a reference to a forcible rescue operation of a merchant ship (the Mayaguez) off Cambodia in 1975 that ended disastrously. Next to “saying publicly one thing,” he scribbles “Lying?” – an allusion to his core campaign pledge to reject the public dishonesty of the Nixon/Kissinger years and never to lie to the American people. In other places, he simply underlines the passage and puts a question mark in the margin. Finally, reacting to Brzezinski’s statement that he plans to develop some of these ideas further for the president, Carter writes: “You’ll be wasting your time.”

Wrap-up of 2024 - Best of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Warm regards from the ISYP Advisory Board, on which I serve.

Calculated retreat of the Great Aletsch Glacier during the 21st century. (Figure modified from Jouvet and Huss, 2019). This figure is from an article featured as a 2024 Bulletin magazine highlight, "The Alps’ iconic glaciers are melting, but there’s still time to save (most of) the biggest."

Reposted from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists:

The best of the Bulletin's bimonthly magazine, 2024

By Dan Drollette Jr 

Melting glaciers, demagogues, climate crises, fusion bombs, breadfruit trees, and the Greta Thunberg of AI. Each of these subjects was at the center of articles from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' bimonthly magazine in 2024, and each of those articles was among our best magazine articles of the year. Read more, and stay tuned for highlights in upcoming newsletters.

We cannot afford another lost year for food and climate action

By Emile Frisson

Last year, organizers of the annual UN climate negotiations finally got around to dealing with agriculture as a source of carbon, using the occasion to unveil a so-called "roadmap" for bringing the world's food production into line with global climate goals. But has the UN gone far enough? Read more from this highlighted 2024 magazine piece.

BEST OF 2024

Emerging experts of 2024: Fresh thinking about the military (and TikTok)

A naval research analyst. A journalist covering arts and culture. A PhD candidate in international studies. A former Navy helicopter pilot turned military professor. And a master's student in management science and engineering. These were among the emerging experts the Bulletin published in 2024.

Bulletin editor Dawn Stover collected 2024 highlights from our "Voices of Tomorrow" section. Selections are below, and check out the article for more on killer robots and nuclear petting zoos.

Who needs a government ban? TikTok users are already defending themselves

By Hali Mecklin

TikTok will be banned in the United States as of January 19th, unless its Chinese owner sells the platform to an American company—or the Supreme Court (which will hear oral arguments on the case on the 10th) rules that the ban passed by Congress violates the First Amendment. Most users aren't worried about the alleged national security threat, but some are quitting TikTok for a different reason. Read more.

Escalating to de-escalate with nuclear weapons: Research shows it's a particularly bad idea

By Daniel R. Post

Many strategists believe that escalating a conflict—by threatening the "limited" use of nuclear weapons, for example—may be an effective way to compel an adversary to back off. The author's research, however, strongly suggests that escalating a nuclear conflict is much more likely to provoke an adversary into continued resistance and possibly counter-escalation. Read more.

By sending nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom, could the United States be fueling nuclear proliferation?

By Janani Mohan

An air base in the United Kingdom is being upgraded with the expectation that the United States may station nuclear weapons there for the first time in 15 years, as a response to the growing instability caused by Russia's war on Ukraine. Stationing can address near-term security concerns, but expansion of this practice runs the risk of increased proliferation. Read more.

How many people were killed by the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Video by Erik English

One of our foremost multimedia publications of the year, the Bulletin released a video based on Alex Wellerstein's research, first published in "Counting the Dead at Hiroshima and Nagasaki." The video features footage of Hiroshima prior to the bombing, generously provided by the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum, and highlights the difficulty of quantifying the devastating human toll of nuclear weapons. Watch now.

Convisero mentor Izzeldin Abuelaish’s interview with The Guardian: "I refuse to hate"

Palestinian doctor and five-time Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Izzeldin Abuelaish, has experienced immense personal tragedy. In January 2009, an Israeli tank shell hit his home killing his three daughters and one of his nieces and in October this year, 22 members of his extended family were killed in Jabaliya refugee camp by an Israeli airstrike. Dr. Abuelaish speaks to the Guardian about how his personal loss has made him determined to push for peace.

Link to the video can be found here.

Oleander Initiative in Japan - Directed by Convisero mentor Ray Matsumiya

Convisero mentor Ray Matsumiya is leading the Oleander Initiative as its Director. Below is a summary of the program’s description:

Program Summary

Ray Matsumiya

2024 Oleander Initiative Participants, from Canada, Kenya, Uganda, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Months after the atomic bomb was dropped over Hiroshima, Japan, a small patch of red oleander flowers bloomed out of the irradiated rubble. Since then, red oleander has symbolized both the dangers of nuclear war and the hope of a more peaceful future. In a similar spirit, the Oleander Initiative leverages the “power of place” of the city of Hiroshima – the first city to be devastated by nuclear weapons – to harness the power of education to promote more peaceful societies. 

The Oleander Initiative gathers educators from communities around the world to work together and transform the lessons of Hiroshima into relevant and impactful peace education activities for their students.  The Oleander Initiative generates deep awareness of the catastrophic humanitarian impacts of nuclear weapons and equips participants with intellectual tools for conflict resolution and mutual understanding. 

Program Description

During early August in 2016 and 2017, educators from the Middle East, North Africa, Japan and the US gathered together during the anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, today a vibrant metropolis known as the City of Peace. During the program, Oleander educators developed lesson plans for their students informed by interactions with atomic bomb survivors, schoolteachers from the city of Hiroshima, and from experts on the humanitarian impact of nuclear war. These lesson plans — fine-tuned and co-developed with Oleander staff and fellow participants during the program — have a concrete and tangible impact on their students and communities. They raise consciousness about the catastrophic global impacts of nuclear war and inspire our next generation to work locally to promote peaceful societies. 

Program Activities

• Instruction from top academics in the fields of peace education and nuclear weapons issues

• Testimonials from hibakusha atomic bomb survivors from Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• August 6thatomic bombing memorial ceremony hosted by the city of Hiroshima

• Educational collaborations with teachers and students from Hiroshima

• Attendance at the World Conference against A & H bombs, the oldest and largest of its type

• Personalized guidance to assist development of educational activities best suited for Oleander educators’ local contexts

• Visits to Miyajima and Hiroshima Castle

• Cultural Activities including Kagura performance, tea ceremony, and calligraphy

• Three day visit to Nagasaki

• Two day orientation activities in Tokyo